Presidential Approval Ratings and the Popular Vote
I jus saw this on the MSNBC site: “If you look back over the last 40 years, an incumbent president seeking re-election has never received a portion of the raw vote that was higher than his approval rating.” I’ve seen this same argument other places too. The thing is, it’s not right (see my table). For what it’s worth, I sent them an email. Here’s the key portion of it:
“Looking at the numbers, I found this to be incorrect for Nixon (57% approval, 61% of the popular vote), Ford (45/48), Carter (37/41), Reagan (58/59), and G.H.W. Bush (34/37). I got the approval ratings from the Gallup poll archives at The Roper Center – http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ – click “Online Access to Data” -> “Presidential Approval Rating”. And I got the popular vote numbers from WordIQ – http://www.wordiq.com/definition/Category:U.S._presidential_elections/”
If I’m reading the numbers correctly and MSNBC is reading them incorrectly, that potentially bodes well for Bush. You’d think I was a shill for the Bush campaign. I’m obviously not, but I am a shill for accuracy. (It’s worth noting that Eisenhower, Johnson, and Clinton won a percentage of the popular election that was less than their approval ratings, so it can run both ways).
