Now I Understand Bush’s Strategy
I mentioned in my post yesterday that I didn’t understand why Bush chose to prepare for last night’s debate by making the rounds with his new, even harsher anti-Kerry stump speech. After watching the debate, now I get it. This will take a couple paragraphs, so stick with me.
In the debate, Bush continued with his heavy focus on the “flip-flopper” attacks on Kerry. What struck me in the post-debate analysis is that – although Bush won praise for doing better than last time – none of the pundits really talked about his attacks (I watched everything but Fox – I’m sure they enjoyed his attacks). Hammering on the same theme (and using the same lines) for months on end is a double-edged sword: it can increase the likelihood of your message getting through, but it can also increase the likelihood that the media will tire of reporting the same story day after day. Kerry has done a good job burnishing his leadership credentials in the two debates, which I think makes Bush’s same-old, same-old attacks even less interesting to the media.
But this doesn’t mean Bush is going to shift his strategy. Instead, he will stick with it, and get even more vitriolic. He simply needs to determine just how much nastier he needs to be in order to keep a hold on the media’s attention. Why? As is typical in election cycles, those who are still undecided this late in the game are breaking for the challenger, especially since Kerry is turning in good performances in the debates. This means the Bush team is no longer trying to pursuade the undecideds, they are now trying to drive them away from the election altogether. Bush’s aggressive rhetoric is just more red meat for his base, and if he can bait Kerry into getting just as nasty, the undecideds that Kerry needs will just stay home, feeling disgusted with both of them.
So Kerry has a tightrope to walk between now and the election: he has to effectively counter the coming waves of increasingly brutal attacks from Bush, while at the same time not getting down in the gutter with him, and he needs to continue to sharpen that “Presidential” image he’s been building in the debates.
