Nothing But Words

The Bush team knows they can’t expect to win in November if they can’t regain the upper-hand in the spin wars. The Democrats have (finally!) done well in working the news cycle after the first Bush-Kerry debate and the VP debate (of course, their job was made easier by Bush’s poor performance, and the multitude of Cheney’s factual errors). If Bush performs poorly again in the debates, his team knows several days of the media again taking him apart would be a disaster. So look for the White House to try redirecting the media’s attention with an October Surprise. I think the surprise will be a bold pronouncement that our missile defense system is up and running. See Missile defense system nearly ready, and this article and this article in Arms Control Today.

Of course, the system isn’t ready yet. According to Arms Control Today: “…little evidence exists to suggest that the system could destroy a single ballistic missile fired at the United States….intercept tests have relied on prototype and substitute components in scripted and unrealistic scenarios…[additional tests have been pushed back] from September to at least November because of an unresolved computer glitch on a test interceptor.” But none of this matters from a political perspective. Bush can announce right after the debates that the system is ready. The Republicans will rush to herald his great achievement, and the Democrats will deride it as an untested and dubious deployment. But it will achieve its intended purpose: it will refocus the discussion away from the debates and onto a national defense topic, where Bush is perceived as strong.