Follow-up: This Election Really is Different
After going through the trouble of assembling the table in my last post, I found Newsday had already written a similar article. Here’s the key piont of their analysis:
Since the Gallup Organization began systematic polling in 1952, five incumbents have run for reelection with an approval rating above 50%. All five — Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan and Clinton — won.
Over that period, three incumbents sought reelection with an approval rating below 50%. All three — Ford in 1976, Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992 — lost.
The latest 5 mainstream polls – all conducted between 10/14-16 – have differing results: Gallup gives Bush the highest approval rating (51%), and the CBS/New York Times poll gives him the lowest (44%). As I’ve mentioned before, the poll I have the least amount of faith in is Gallup, and the one I think is most sound is Zogby, which currently has Bush’s approval rating at 45%. (Here are the search results for “Gallup” on Ruy Teixeira’s site if you want to know what’s wrong with Gallup, or just remember that their polls indicated Bush was going to beat Gore 52%-39% in 2000).
